How New Scientist readers predicted the Oscar winners

日期:2019-03-01 03:08:03 作者:荀解鲮 阅读:

David Fisher/REX/Shutterstock A couple of weeks ago, we ran a story looking at how US intelligence agencies have been using crowds of ordinary people to predict world events, like election results and the rise and fall of oil prices. Nobody would call our readers ordinary of course, but as a group of non-experts on the film industry, we decided to put you to the test and asked you to predict the winners of seven 2018 Oscars categories. We counted the votes a few hours before the winners were announced, so as not to skew the results. With over 6000 votes, you successfully predicted the winners of all but one of 7 categories. Such an impressive outcome fits with the original research that suggests that expert analysts and commentators often have ingrained biases accumulated over years of study, and these can hamstring their ability to forecast accurately. But ask enough non-experts and their aggregate predictions, which don’t contain those same biases, are often more accurate. Thousands of people were involved in the forecasting experiments carried out by the intelligence agencies, and sophisticated maths was used to identify and amplify the predictions of the smartest forecasters. Our experiment was not a tightly controlled scientific trial — more a bit of fun. But we can see that not everyone blindly followed the predictions of the film critics; there is a spread of views, as you would expect in a crowd. Here are the results in full: Best director Readers said: Guillermo del Toro (36%) Winner: Guillermo del Toro Best actress Readers said: Frances McDormand (34%) Winner: Frances McDormand Best actor Readers said: Gary Oldman (36%) Winner: Gary Oldman Best actor in a supporting role Readers said: Tie between Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson (each with 22%) Winner: Sam Rockwell Best actress in a supporting role Readers said: Allison Janney (26%) Winner: Allison Janney Best visual effects Readers said: Blade Runner 2049 (35%) Winner: Blade Runner 2049 Best picture Readers said: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (19%) Winner: The Shape of Water More on these topics: